Prior to that, peter cofounded global business network, a leader in scenario planning in 01988, where he served as chairman until 02011. For a more recent discussion of scenarios applied to foreign policy, see michael f. Peter schwartz, the art of the long view, new york. A guidebook for librarianse book joan giesecke deborah pearson jon e. Schwartz published a scenario planning book entitled the art of long view in 1991. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, peter. Plotting your scenarios jay ogilvy and peter schwartz. Peter schwartz participant peter schwartz is senior vice president for global government relations and strategic planning for.
Scenario planning guards against the dangers of placing all of the organizations eggs into the basket of just one forecast, however well founded that forecast may be. Scenario planning sometimes called scenario and contingency planning is a structured way for organisations to think about the future. Then we can prepare for what we dont think is going to happen. Schwartz typically does this for major corporations, but the. Royal dutchshell has had numerous employeesconsultants who took new age ideas into the mainstream, e.
Scenario planning the next big surprise business the economist. A vast amount of literature on scenario planning has been published at the latest since the successful royal dutchshell scenarios at the beginning of the 1970s, either in the form of casestudies, publications on scenario techniques or scenario typologies. His first book, the art of the long view doubleday, 1991. Peter schwartz is one of the several leading scenario planners to emerge from royal. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. The art of the long view peter schwartz the point of scenario planning is to help us suspend our disbelief in all the futures. Learnings from the long view by peter schwartz, paperback. Scenario planning is a practical tool for collective strategic thinking in organizations, especially when external uncertainty is high. When herman kahn left the rand corporation, he set up the hudson institute and further developed the process, and went on to write a book called the year 2000 which was published in 1967. Praise for adam kahanes books transformative scenario planning i highly commend this book.
Sessions for the day finished with peter schwartz of global business network talking about scenario planning business and it strategies in an uncertain world. He is the author of the books the art of the long view and learnings from the long view that describe scenario planning in detail, and also a cofounder of the global business network, a leading organization offering consulting and training services in scenario planning. Scenario planning further evolved in 1987 when peter schwartz and a number of colleagues formed the global business network to widen the application of scenario planning to non governmental organizations and governments. The art of the long view by peter schwartz is mainly a training guide for scenario planning. The term scenario planning was originally coined by the rand corporation during and after world war ii, as part of their corporate strategy. Its overall purpose is discussed and two complementary. As of october 2011, he has served as senior vice president strategic planning for based in san francisco, california. But peter schwartzs book takes planning for the future to a much higher level. In peter schwartzs book the art of the long view scenarios.
Head of scenario planning for royal dutch shell from 1981 to 86. He might seem like a strange choice to speak at a bpm conference, but his job is to help companies to think about the future. Wired magazine has a great feature in the august 2009 issue they put together with peter schwartz, cofounder of the global business network. After reading the three books about scenario planning scenario planning. Scenario planning, its utility, and its relationship with. Peter schwartz has 19 books on goodreads with 2773 ratings. Scenario planning overview central arizona project. This was followed by numerous other books on the topic. Peter schwartz is the cofounder of global business network gbn, a monitor group company.
A few favorite highlights of the book follows on predicting the future. Peter schwartzs most popular book is the art of the long view. Peter schwartz senior vice president strategic planning. In these roles he directs policy and politics throughout the world and manages the organizations ongoing strategic conversation.
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decisionmakers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. When schwartz asked ferguson to expand on that idea, ferguson pointed out there was a whole chapter in the book. Peter has written several books, on a variety of futureoriented topics. Schwartz has written several books, on a variety of futureoriented topics. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning an alternative and complement to strategic planning. For a foundational description of scenario planning, see peter schwartz, the art of the long view. Planning for the future in an uncertain world by peter schwartz, scenario planning. Royal dutchshell has been the poster child of success using scenario planning to address the instability and uncertainty during the 1973 oil crisis. Peter schwartz is an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, specializing in scenario planning and working with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. Peter schwartz san francisco, california is chairman of the global business network and author of the critically and popularly acclaimed book, the art of the long view. Summary the art of the long view linkedin slideshare. Peter schwartz born 1946 is an american futurist, innovator, author, and cofounder of the global business network gbn, a corporate strategy firm, specializing in futurethink and scenario planning schwartz has written several books, on a variety of futureoriented topics. Schwartz instead argues for scenario based reasoning.
When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will help to compensate for. Peter schwartz is cofounder and chairman of global business network, a monitor group company, and a partner of the monitor group, a family of professional services firms devoted to enhancing client competitiveness. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the con. Schwartz has written some classics on looking ahead like the art of the long view, the long boom and inevitable surprises. Thats why we asked peter schwartz, cofounder of the global business network, to lead us through a tutorial on scenario planning. Peter schwartz is the senior vice president for global government relations and strategic planning for. Peter schwartz, member of the board of directors the.
Ferguson ended with a critique of schwartz s book on scenario planning, the art of the long view, which he thought showed signs of heuristic bias. He is the former head of scenario planning at royal dutchshell in london and directed the strategic environment center at. The most typical scenario planning process, as suggested by konno et al. Simultaneously, it overcomes some of the weaknesses of traditional strategy plannin. This was the book that introduced me to the futures field before i knew what it was. Scenarios are rich, datadriven stories about tomorrow that address important, immediate choices for business leaders. Scenario planning purposebuilt for uncertain times risk. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, peter specializes in scenario planning, working with corporations, governments, and nonprofits to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fastchanging environment. To be an effective planning tool, scenarios should be written in the form of absorbing, convincing stories that describe a broad range of alternative futures relevant to an organizations success. Cawthorne the download link for this product can be found on the final confirmation screen after you complete your purchase, and. Scenario planning has now been in use at shell for more than 45 years, spanning times of great triumph and prominenceespecially in the 1970sbut also long stretches during which company.
Pierre wack was head of scenario planning at royal dutch shell oil in london for just over ten years. In peter schwartzs book the art of the long view school new york university. Only storiesscenariosand our ability to visualize different kinds of futures. A field guide to the future is a practical and fun guide or companion to walk you through your planning process. Peter schwartz on 5step scenario planning porchlight books. The thesis is about scenario planning which was an unknown method for me. His first book was the art of the long view doubleday, 1991 is considered by many to be the seminal publication on scenario planning, and is used as a textbook by many business schools. Insights about scenario planning, including what it is, how senior leaders can use it, and how it can bolster resilience in times of crisis, are discussed in this interview with peter schwartz, noted futurist, author, and senior vice president of strategic planning at salesforce, and andrew blau, managing director at deloitte consulting llp. In peter schwartzs book the art of the long view scenarios are described as.
Scenario planning protecting your company against an uncertain future. His first book, the art of the long view1991, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and was recently voted the no. The magazines designers deliver a great set of graphic layouts to help people understanding scenario planning in five simple steps. Vince cable, secretary of state for business, united kingdom. Spent 10 years from 1972 to 81at stanford research institute where i was one of the earliest users of the arpa net. A tool for strategic thinking among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail.
Exploring scenario planning processes lund university publications. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational. A field guide to the future by woody wade paperback. Peter schwartz asserts that we have good tools to help manage the risk and parse the choices leaders must make. He is also senior vice president of global government relations and strategic planning at. Books by peter schwartz author of the art of the long view. He also coauthored the long boom peter is the author of inevitable surprises 2003, a provocative look at the dynamic forces at play in the world. Tools and pitfalls michel godet abstract the term strategy has been misused and even abused. Peter schwartz is the man who has done most to popularise the notion of scenario planning over the past ten years. Scenario analysis is all about alternative worlds and parallel universes and may include black swans, but stops short of meteor strikes. Five years after its original publication, the book continues to pop up deservedlyon business bestseller lists. This book, on scenario planning, is consistent with this. Scenario planning protecting your company against an uncertain future peter schwartz on. The book is an easy read but starts out in the first chapter or two seeming like an info commercial trying to set the foundation of the product right.
It does not give stepbystep instructions without the reader having to go through the whole book. Planning for the future in an uncertain world, new york. Schwartz worked for royal dutch shell as head of scenario planning, where he continued the pioneering work of pierre wack, in the field of scenario planning. Scenarios are not about predicting the future, rather they are about perceiving futures in the present. Peter schwartz is an american futurist, innovator, author, and cofounder of the global business network gbn, a corporate strategy firm, specializing in future think and scenario planning. Our aim is to evaluate risk for a particular plan of action according to different scenarios or situations. Thoughtfully constructed, believable plots help managers to become. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clari. It can be used by individuals for personal scenario planning e. From 01982 to 01986, peter headed scenario planning for the royal dutchshell group of. The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. The art of the long view peter schwartz nick chesterley. The scenarios based approach to strategic planning is an open and creative approach that considers multiple strategy options a\.
234 645 151 1518 221 935 1380 1499 1342 1513 1242 1093 1452 933 1308 34 470 932 735 686 1138 1019 1448 856 73 1044 151 77 294 892 781 905